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Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade swung between losses and gains before finishing flat Thursday, providing hope that crop markets are starting to settle down after Russia's escalation of the war in Ukraine.

U.S. wheat had surged more than 11% in the previous two sessions as Russia pulled out of the Ukraine grain deal, which will force supplies to world markets through narrower and more cumbersome avenues.

Both countries warned that ships headed to each other's ports could be considered military targets, marking a new phase of the conflict that began in February 2022.

Ukraine has increased reliance on its Danube River ports and rail and road routes via the European Union throughout the war, but a heatwave fanning across part of southern Europe is lowering river levels and restricting export capacity, which will make shipping grain even more difficult.

Cutting off the Black Sea ports will cut Ukraine's monthly export capacity from 7M-8M tons to a maximum of ~4M tons, according to Argus Media agriculture analyst Alexandre Marie.

CBOT wheat futures (W_1:COM) for September delivery ended virtually unchanged at $7.27 1/2 per bushel, while December corn (C_1:COM) closed -1.3% to $5.46 per bushel and November soybeans (S_1:COM) settled -0.3% at $14.03 1/4 per bushel, with forecasts predicting wetter weather in the Corn Belt over the weekend.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:WEAT), (CORN), (SOYB), (DBA), (MOO)

The drop in CBOT grain futures was linked to a wetter weather outlook for the next few days.

Ag research firm DTN forecasts isolated and scattered showers in growing areas over the weekend, although conditions are expected to turn back toward hot and dry next week.